SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sun Jan 31 2021 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...Southeast through tonight... A midlevel trough over the OH Valley this morning will amplify southeastward toward the southern Appalachians, in response to upstream height rises over the Rockies. The initial surface cyclone will move eastward across the OH Valley and weaken by later today, and secondary cyclogenesis is expected by tonight along a Carolinas coastal front. A trailing cold front will move southeastward across MS/AL today, and then across south GA and north FL tonight. The primary focus for deep convection will be along this trailing cold front, and the path of the secondary cyclone along the Carolinas coastal front. Low-level moisture return across the Gulf coast and Southeast has been rather limited thus far, in the wake of a prior frontal intrusion. Some shallow convection will be possible today along the front in AL, though poor lapse rates aloft will limit the depth of buoyancy and the potential for charge separation/lightning. Low-level moistening and destabilization should become sufficient for thunderstorms from the FL Big Bend into south GA later this afternoon into tonight. Convection should also increase by tonight near and just off the coast of the Carolinas, as the deepening cyclone encounters a modifying air mass from the western Atlantic. An isolated severe storm cannot be completely ruled out this evening and early tonight across north FL/south GA given fairly strong southwesterly deep-layer shear, but the severe-storm threat will ultimately be limited by weak buoyancy. ..Thompson/Broyles.. 01/31/2021
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