SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Sun Jan 31 2021

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.

...Southeast through tonight...
A midlevel trough over the OH Valley this morning will amplify
southeastward toward the southern Appalachians, in response to
upstream height rises over the Rockies.  The initial surface cyclone
will move eastward across the OH Valley and weaken by later today,
and secondary cyclogenesis is expected by tonight along a Carolinas
coastal front.  A trailing cold front will move southeastward across
MS/AL today, and then across south GA and north FL tonight.  The
primary focus for deep convection will be along this trailing cold
front, and the path of the secondary cyclone along the Carolinas
coastal front.

Low-level moisture return across the Gulf coast and Southeast has
been rather limited thus far, in the wake of a prior frontal
intrusion.  Some shallow convection will be possible today along the
front in AL, though poor lapse rates aloft will limit the depth of
buoyancy and the potential for charge separation/lightning. 
Low-level moistening and destabilization should become sufficient
for thunderstorms from the FL Big Bend into south GA later this
afternoon into tonight.  Convection should also increase by tonight
near and just off the coast of the Carolinas, as the deepening
cyclone encounters a modifying air mass from the western Atlantic. 
An isolated severe storm cannot be completely ruled out this evening
and early tonight across north FL/south GA given fairly strong
southwesterly deep-layer shear, but the severe-storm threat will
ultimately be limited by weak buoyancy.

..Thompson/Broyles.. 01/31/2021

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