Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Sun Jan 31 2021 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement on the overall progression of the upper pattern into the weekend, but continues to show variance of embedded shortwave troughs. Expectation is for a deep upper trough to begin the period extended from western Canada to off the southern CA coast. Several shortwaves will likely be embedded within this larger trough, with guidance offering various solutions of their evolution. The southernmost shortwave is forecast to move across the Southwest/northern Mexico on D5/Thursday and across the southern Plains on D6/Friday. Previous model runs suggested this shortwave had the potential to interact with modest moisture return across the southern Plains. However, most recent runs have trended faster with a cold front on D5/Thursday, which pushes through before the shortwave arrives. Another shortwave trough is expected to follow quickly in the wake of the first, rotating through the parent upper trough and across the southern Plains across on D6/Friday or D7/Saturday. Main forecast uncertainty is whether or not either one of these shortwaves will be able to interact with any low-level moisture. Recent runs trended away from more vigorous interaction, but, given the strength of these systems, some severe potential could still manifest and guidance will be monitored closely for upcoming outlooks.
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