Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CST Sun Jan 31 2021

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement on the overall
progression of the upper pattern into the weekend, but continues to
show variance of embedded shortwave troughs. 

Expectation is for a deep upper trough to begin the period extended
from western Canada to off the southern CA coast. Several shortwaves
will likely be embedded within this larger trough, with guidance
offering various solutions of their evolution. The southernmost
shortwave is forecast to move across the Southwest/northern Mexico
on D5/Thursday and across the southern Plains on D6/Friday. Previous
model runs suggested this shortwave had the potential to interact
with modest moisture return across the southern Plains. However,
most recent runs have trended faster with a cold front on
D5/Thursday, which pushes through before the shortwave arrives.  

Another shortwave trough is expected to follow quickly in the wake
of the first, rotating through the parent upper trough and across
the southern Plains across on D6/Friday or D7/Saturday.

Main forecast uncertainty is whether or not either one of these
shortwaves will be able to interact with any low-level moisture.
Recent runs trended away from more vigorous interaction, but, given
the strength of these systems, some severe potential could still
manifest and guidance will be monitored closely for upcoming
outlooks.

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