SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
A brief tornado and locally damaging winds are possible tonight
across parts of southern Georgia into north and west Florida.

...01z Update...

Weak surface low that was evident over central AL earlier this
afternoon continues to weaken along the GA/AL border near Columbus.
The back edge of convection is noted ahead of this weak feature
where a few lightning flashes are noted in the strongest updrafts.
Downstream, two distinct line segments have evolved within a
confluent low-level air mass over southeast GA. This activity will
shift offshore and possibly strengthen east of the coast as a new
surface low develops off the Carolina Coast later tonight.

As deep-layer flow veers across the northern FL Peninsula, low-level
convergence will likely remain limited, but sufficient for eastern
Gulf convection to spread inland along the FL Gulf Coast later
tonight. A brief tornado or wind gust can not be ruled out, though
most convection should remain sub-severe.

..Darrow.. 02/01/2021

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