SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper ridge will cover much of the western and central CONUS early Tuesday morning. This ridge will be flanked by two troughs, with the eastern trough extending from Quebec to the Bahamas and the western trough extending from British Columbia into the northeast Pacific well off the CA coast. This overall upper pattern will remain intact as it shifts eastward throughout the period. By early Wednesday, the upper ridge will cover much of the central CONUS, extending from northern Ontario southwestward into Mexico. The eastern trough is forecast to develop a closed circulation over the Northeast states while having drifted slightly eastward and losing amplitude. The western trough is also forecast to progress eastward, likely extending from the Canadian Prairie Provinces southwestward to a strong embedded shortwave trough off the central/southern CA coast early Wednesday morning. Dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development across the majority of the CONUS. Deeper convective cores may occur within the frontal band moving through the Pacific Northwest late Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Cold mid-level temperatures and resultant steep lapse rates could result in a lightning flash or two within these cores. Even so, the overall probability of occurrence is low, and coverage would be very isolated even if a few flashes were realized. ..Mosier.. 02/01/2021
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