SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z


Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

An expansive upper ridge will cover much of the western and central
CONUS early Tuesday morning. This ridge will be flanked by two
troughs, with the eastern trough extending from Quebec to the
Bahamas and the western trough extending from British Columbia into
the northeast Pacific well off the CA coast. This overall upper
pattern will remain intact as it shifts eastward throughout the
period. By early Wednesday, the upper ridge will cover much of the
central CONUS, extending from northern Ontario southwestward into
Mexico. The eastern trough is forecast to develop a closed
circulation over the Northeast states while having drifted slightly
eastward and losing amplitude. The western trough is also forecast
to progress eastward, likely extending from the Canadian Prairie
Provinces southwestward to a strong embedded shortwave trough off
the central/southern CA coast early Wednesday morning. 

Dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development
across the majority of the CONUS.  Deeper convective cores may occur
within the frontal band moving through the Pacific
Northwest late Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Cold mid-level
temperatures and resultant steep lapse rates could result in a
lightning flash or two within these cores. Even so, the overall
probability of occurrence is low, and coverage would be very
isolated even if a few flashes were realized.

..Mosier.. 02/01/2021

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