SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 AM CST Mon Feb 01 2021

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z


Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

Upper pattern early Wednesday morning is expected to feature an
upper ridge over the central CONUS, flanked by two upper troughs.
Eastern upper trough will likely extend from the Northeast States to
the Bahamas while the western trough extends from the Canadian
Prairie Provinces to off the southern CA coast. 

This overall pattern is forecast to move eastward, dominated by the
western CONUS troughing and its embedded shortwaves. Eastward
progression of this trough will result in surface cyclogenesis
across the High Plains, with the most dominant low emerging out of
the central High Plains and ending the period over eastern KS. 

Significant cold air aloft will accompany this trough, with -30 deg
C at 500 mb reaching eastern UT/western CO by early Thursday.
Resultant steep mid-level lapse rates could result in deeper
convection as the upper trough approaches the central Rockies. A few
flashes may result, but profiles are generally expected to remain
entirely below freezing, limiting the charge separation needed for
lightning production. Stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms
elsewhere across the CONUS.

..Mosier.. 02/01/2021

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