SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CST Mon Feb 01 2021 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Upper pattern early Wednesday morning is expected to feature an upper ridge over the central CONUS, flanked by two upper troughs. Eastern upper trough will likely extend from the Northeast States to the Bahamas while the western trough extends from the Canadian Prairie Provinces to off the southern CA coast. This overall pattern is forecast to move eastward, dominated by the western CONUS troughing and its embedded shortwaves. Eastward progression of this trough will result in surface cyclogenesis across the High Plains, with the most dominant low emerging out of the central High Plains and ending the period over eastern KS. Significant cold air aloft will accompany this trough, with -30 deg C at 500 mb reaching eastern UT/western CO by early Thursday. Resultant steep mid-level lapse rates could result in deeper convection as the upper trough approaches the central Rockies. A few flashes may result, but profiles are generally expected to remain entirely below freezing, limiting the charge separation needed for lightning production. Stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms elsewhere across the CONUS. ..Mosier.. 02/01/2021
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