Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 AM CST Mon Feb 01 2021

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Recent medium-range guidance is showing better consistency into the
weekend. Current expectation is for an upper trough to extend from
the Canadian Prairie Provinces to off the southern CA coast early
D4/Thursday. This upper trough is forecast to move eastward on
D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. The northern and central portions of the
trough will be more progressive than the southern portion, which may
lead to bifurcation and the development of a upper low off the
northern
+ coast of the Baja Peninsula. 

Surface low associated to the primary trough is expected to move
from the central Plains northeastward across the MS Valley and upper
Great Lakes and into Ontario by D5/Friday. Attendant cold front will
sweep eastward/southeast across the southern Plains and mid/lower MS
Valley on D4/Thursday and remainder of the eastern CONUS on
D5/Friday. Modest low-level moisture will precede this front, but
relatively cool and cloudy antecedent conditions are currently
expected to limit thunderstorm coverage. Slight changes in the
thermodynamics would result in a more favorable environment and
trends will be monitored closely in subsequent outlooks.

Another shortwave trough and attendant surge of cold air is forecast
to follow quickly in the wake of the first system this weekend.
Short period between this surge and the lead wave is expected to
limit moisture return and thunderstorm potential.

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