SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 AM CST Tue Feb 02 2021 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A trough/ridge/trough upper pattern is forecast to be in place across the CONUS early Wednesday. Eastward progression of these features is anticipated throughout the period, with both the western trough and central ridge amplifying. By early Thursday, expectation is for broad and deep troughing across much of the western and central CONUS while upper ridging covers the eastern CONUS. The approach of the western trough will result in a deepening lee trough throughout the High Plains, with surface cyclogenesis anticipated in several locations. Cyclogenesis is expected first across the northern High Plains and then across the central High Plains, with the southern surface low becoming primary by early Thursday morning. Stable conditions will dominate the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm activity. A strike or two cannot be entirely ruled out in eastern UT/western CO, where cold mid-level temperatures and ascent attendant to the upper trough could result in a few deeper convective cores. However, profiles are generally expected to remain entirely below freezing for most locations. In those areas with slightly warmer temperatures, the stronger forcing for ascent precedes the cold mid-level temperatures, resulting in predominantly shallow storms. ..Mosier.. 02/02/2021
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