SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 AM CST Tue Feb 02 2021

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z


Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

A trough/ridge/trough upper pattern is forecast to be in place
across the CONUS early Wednesday. Eastward progression of these
features is anticipated throughout the period, with both the western
trough and central ridge amplifying. By early Thursday, expectation
is for broad and deep troughing across much of the western and
central CONUS while upper ridging covers the eastern CONUS.

The approach of the western trough will result in a deepening lee
trough throughout the High Plains, with surface cyclogenesis
anticipated in several locations. Cyclogenesis is expected first
across the northern High Plains and then across the central High
Plains, with the southern surface low becoming primary by early
Thursday morning. 

Stable conditions will dominate the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm
activity. A strike or two cannot be entirely ruled out in eastern
UT/western CO, where cold mid-level temperatures and ascent
attendant to the upper trough could result in a few deeper
convective cores. However, profiles are generally expected to remain
entirely below freezing for most locations. In those areas with
slightly warmer temperatures, the stronger forcing for ascent
precedes the cold mid-level temperatures, resulting in predominantly
shallow storms.

..Mosier.. 02/02/2021

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