SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Tue Feb 02 2021 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A broad and deep upper trough is forecast to cover much of the western and central CONUS early Thursday morning, with modest upper ridging in place east of this trough, from the TN Valley into Quebec. A shortwave trough embedded within the larger trough is expected to progress quickly eastward/northeastward across the central Plains, and Mid MS/OH Valleys, reaching the Lower Great Lakes region by early Friday morning. At the same time, another shortwave trough is expected to move through the western periphery of the parent trough, traversing over the Great Basin and Southwest into the southern High Plains. Evolution of these waves will result in broad upper troughing covering the entire CONUS by early Friday morning. The surface pattern early Thursday is expected to feature a large trough from the southern Plains into western Ontario. Primary surface low within this trough is forecast to move swiftly northeastward throughout the day, progressing from eastern KS into Lower MI. Cold front attendant to this low will sweep quickly eastward/southeastward, ending the period extended from Lower MI southeastward into the Upper OH Valley and then back southwestward into the central Gulf of Mexico. Modest mid-level moisture will be in place ahead of this front from the southern Plains through the Southeast. However, the stronger forcing for ascent and the colder temperatures will remain displaced north of the better low-level moisture. Additionally, widespread cloud cover will limit heating. Consequently, the lack of buoyancy will preclude thunderstorm development. Even with the expected lack of thunderstorms, shallow convection near the surface low coupled with strong low/mid-level flow could result convectively augmented gusts across portions of the Lower MO and Mid MS Valleys. ..Mosier.. 02/02/2021
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