SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Tue Feb 02 2021

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z


Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

A broad and deep upper trough is forecast to cover much of the
western and central CONUS early Thursday morning, with modest upper
ridging in place east of this trough, from the TN Valley into
Quebec. A shortwave trough embedded within the larger trough is
expected to progress quickly eastward/northeastward across the
central Plains, and Mid MS/OH Valleys, reaching the Lower Great
Lakes region by early Friday morning. At the same time, another
shortwave trough is expected to move through the western periphery
of the parent trough, traversing over the Great Basin and Southwest
into the southern High Plains. Evolution of these waves will result
in broad upper troughing covering the entire CONUS by early Friday

The surface pattern early Thursday is expected to feature a large
trough from the southern Plains into western Ontario. Primary
surface low within this trough is forecast to move swiftly
northeastward throughout the day, progressing from eastern KS into
Lower MI. Cold front attendant to this low will sweep quickly
eastward/southeastward, ending the period extended from Lower MI
southeastward into the Upper OH Valley and then back southwestward
into the central Gulf of Mexico.

Modest mid-level moisture will be in place ahead of this front from
the southern Plains through the Southeast. However, the stronger
forcing for ascent and the colder temperatures will remain displaced
north of the better low-level moisture. Additionally, widespread
cloud cover will limit heating. Consequently, the lack of buoyancy
will preclude thunderstorm development. Even with the expected lack
of thunderstorms, shallow convection near the surface low coupled
with strong low/mid-level flow could result convectively augmented
gusts across portions of the Lower MO and Mid MS Valleys.

..Mosier.. 02/02/2021

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