Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CST Tue Feb 02 2021

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An expansive upper trough is expected to persist across much of the
CONUS through the weekend before the flow then trends less
amplified/more zonal. Latest medium-range guidance forecasts a pair
of strong cold fronts, one on D5/Saturday and D6/Sunday and the
other on D7/Monday and D8/Tuesday, will likely keep conditions
stable across the majority of the CONUS. The only exception is from
the Gulf Coast into FL, where these fronts may interact with modest
low-level moisture to produce thunderstorms. 

While the most recent run of the guidance suggests limited potential
throughout extended period, moderate run-to-run variability exists.
Additionally, given the active/progressive nature of the pattern and
presence of strong dynamics, minor changes in system evolution could
result in more thermodynamically favorable environments. As such,
trends will be monitored closely in subsequent outlooks.

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