Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Tue Feb 02 2021 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... An expansive upper trough is expected to persist across much of the CONUS through the weekend before the flow then trends less amplified/more zonal. Latest medium-range guidance forecasts a pair of strong cold fronts, one on D5/Saturday and D6/Sunday and the other on D7/Monday and D8/Tuesday, will likely keep conditions stable across the majority of the CONUS. The only exception is from the Gulf Coast into FL, where these fronts may interact with modest low-level moisture to produce thunderstorms. While the most recent run of the guidance suggests limited potential throughout extended period, moderate run-to-run variability exists. Additionally, given the active/progressive nature of the pattern and presence of strong dynamics, minor changes in system evolution could result in more thermodynamically favorable environments. As such, trends will be monitored closely in subsequent outlooks.
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