SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Wed Feb 03 2021 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough over much of the western/central CONUS Thursday morning is forecast to continue moving across the eastern states through the period. A surface low initially over northern OK and southern KS should develop northeastward to the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes by Thursday evening. A trailing cold front will sweep quickly east-southeastward across the southern Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. Modest low-level moisture return, characterized by surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, should occur through the day across these regions ahead of the cold front. However, the stronger forcing for ascent preceding the upper trough will likely remain displaced to the north. In addition, poor low/mid-level lapse rates and the presence of a low-level inversion in forecast soundings suggest that any convection that may develop along the front through Thursday evening will likely remain shallow, with little thunderstorm potential evident. ..Gleason.. 02/03/2021
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