SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Wed Feb 03 2021

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough over much of the western/central CONUS
Thursday morning is forecast to continue moving across the eastern
states through the period. A surface low initially over northern OK
and southern KS should develop northeastward to the Upper Midwest
and Great Lakes by Thursday evening. A trailing cold front will
sweep quickly east-southeastward across the southern Plains and
lower/mid MS Valley. Modest low-level moisture return, characterized
by surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, should occur
through the day across these regions ahead of the cold front.
However, the stronger forcing for ascent preceding the upper trough
will likely remain displaced to the north. In addition, poor
low/mid-level lapse rates and the presence of a low-level inversion
in forecast soundings suggest that any convection that may develop
along the front through Thursday evening will likely remain shallow,
with little thunderstorm potential evident.

..Gleason.. 02/03/2021

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