Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CST Wed Feb 03 2021 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... At least broadly cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to persist across the CONUS until the middle of next week. A series of shortwave troughs are expected to traverse this parent upper troughing, the first on D4/Saturday, followed by another on D5/Sunday, and potentially a third on D6/Monday or D7/Tuesday. The first two waves will be accompanied by surges of cold, continental air, acting to reinforce the stable conditions expected to be in place. This will limit any low-level moisture return and associated buoyancy, preventing thunderstorms. The only exception is across FL, where enough low-level moisture may remain for isolated storms ahead of each frontal passage. Enhanced mid/upper level southwesterly flow will likely be in place over FL from D4/Saturday through D5/Sunday, resulting in the potential for a few stronger storms as the surface low and attendant front progress across the peninsula. After D5/Sunday, the stronger flow aloft is forecast to retreat northward, limiting severe potential with the next frontal passage.
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