Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 AM CST Wed Feb 03 2021

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
At least broadly cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to persist across
the CONUS until the middle of next week. A series of shortwave
troughs are expected to traverse this parent upper troughing, the
first on D4/Saturday, followed by another on D5/Sunday, and
potentially a third on D6/Monday or D7/Tuesday. The first two waves
will be accompanied by surges of cold, continental air, acting to
reinforce the stable conditions expected to be in place. This will
limit any low-level moisture return and associated buoyancy,
preventing thunderstorms. 

The only exception is across FL, where enough low-level moisture may
remain for isolated storms ahead of each frontal passage. Enhanced
mid/upper level southwesterly flow will likely be in place over FL
from D4/Saturday through D5/Sunday, resulting in the potential for a
few stronger storms as the surface low and attendant front progress
across the peninsula. After D5/Sunday, the stronger flow aloft is
forecast to retreat northward, limiting severe potential with the
next frontal passage.

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