SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Thu Feb 04 2021 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will be maintained across the CONUS throughout the entire period, supported by several embedded shortwave troughs. One of these shortwave troughs is forecast to extend across the central/southern High Plains early Saturday. Expectation is for this shortwave to progress eastward throughout the day, reaching the Lower MO Valley/Ozark Plateau by Saturday evening and the TN Valley by early Sunday morning. A stationary front will likely extend from central FL westward across the central Gulf of Mexico at the beginning of the period. Eastward progression of the aforementioned shortwave will likely induce modest moisture return, with the stationary front transitioning to a warm from as it gradually moves northward. Surface cyclogenesis is also anticipated along this boundary, with the resulting low then tracking northeastward across the central FL Peninsula. Some enhancement of the mid/upper level flow is also anticipated as this wave and attendant surface low move across FL, resulting in a kinematic environment supportive of organized storms. However, uncertainty remains regarding the thermodynamics, particularly in the warm sector ahead of the low where antecedent warm low to mid-level temperatures may limit deep convection. Currently, much of the thunderstorm activity is expected to be elevated north of the warm front. Even so, severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if the probability for warm-sector storms increases and/or the location of the front becomes more certain. ..Mosier.. 02/04/2021
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