SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CST Thu Feb 04 2021

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Saturday.

Broad upper troughing will be maintained across the CONUS throughout
the entire period, supported by several embedded shortwave troughs.
One of these shortwave troughs is forecast to extend across the
central/southern High Plains early Saturday. Expectation is for this
shortwave to progress eastward throughout the day, reaching the
Lower MO Valley/Ozark Plateau by Saturday evening and the TN Valley
by early Sunday morning. 

A stationary front will likely extend from central FL westward
across the central Gulf of Mexico at the beginning of the period.
Eastward progression of the aforementioned shortwave will likely
induce modest moisture return, with the stationary front
transitioning to a warm from as it gradually moves northward.
Surface cyclogenesis is also anticipated along this boundary, with
the resulting low then tracking northeastward across the central FL

Some enhancement of the mid/upper level flow is also anticipated as
this wave and attendant surface low move across FL, resulting in a
kinematic environment supportive of organized storms. However,
uncertainty remains regarding the thermodynamics, particularly in
the warm sector ahead of the low where antecedent warm low to
mid-level temperatures may limit deep convection. Currently, much of
the thunderstorm activity is expected to be elevated north of the
warm front. Even so, severe probabilities may be needed in later
outlooks if the probability for warm-sector storms increases and/or
the location of the front becomes more certain.

..Mosier.. 02/04/2021

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