SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Thu Feb 04 2021

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z


Organized thunderstorms are not anticipated today.

...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Although a few
lighting flashes occurred earlier across parts of northern IL, the
thermodynamic environment is expected to remain very marginal for
lightning across the Midwest through the rest of the afternoon and
tonight. Farther south across the lower MS Valley, shallow
convection may develop this afternoon along a southeastward-moving
cold front. Forecast soundings suggest that poor low/mid-level lapse
rates will inhibit the vertical depth of these showers, with
thunderstorm potential remaining low.

..Gleason.. 02/04/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Thu Feb 04 2021/

A broad upper trough continues to dig into the central US, with a
cold front moving through northern MO.  Scattered thunderstorms
occurred earlier over southern/central MO in a warm-advection region
ahead of the front.  However, that area of lift has shifted eastward
and out of the region.  Model solutions suggest that scattered
showers will re-develop along/ahead of the front this afternoon over
the same general area.  However, forecast soundings indicate very
weak CAPE profiles that lend doubt that storms can become tall
enough for charge separation.  While isolated lightning flashes are
possible across parts of IA/IL/MO today, coverage appears too low to
warrant a TSTM outlook area.

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