SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Thu Feb 04 2021 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized thunderstorms are not anticipated today. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Although a few lighting flashes occurred earlier across parts of northern IL, the thermodynamic environment is expected to remain very marginal for lightning across the Midwest through the rest of the afternoon and tonight. Farther south across the lower MS Valley, shallow convection may develop this afternoon along a southeastward-moving cold front. Forecast soundings suggest that poor low/mid-level lapse rates will inhibit the vertical depth of these showers, with thunderstorm potential remaining low. ..Gleason.. 02/04/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Thu Feb 04 2021/ ...MO... A broad upper trough continues to dig into the central US, with a cold front moving through northern MO. Scattered thunderstorms occurred earlier over southern/central MO in a warm-advection region ahead of the front. However, that area of lift has shifted eastward and out of the region. Model solutions suggest that scattered showers will re-develop along/ahead of the front this afternoon over the same general area. However, forecast soundings indicate very weak CAPE profiles that lend doubt that storms can become tall enough for charge separation. While isolated lightning flashes are possible across parts of IA/IL/MO today, coverage appears too low to warrant a TSTM outlook area.
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