SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Thu Feb 04 2021 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms will be possible during the morning and early afternoon from central through southeast Texas and southwestern Louisiana. ...Central and southeast Texas and southwestern Louisiana... A cold front will have moved off the Texas and Louisiana coasts by 12Z Friday morning. A dry and stable boundary layer will reside in the post-frontal regime. However, a shortwave trough currently near the AZ/NM border will move through central and eastern TX during the morning and into the lower MS Valley by afternoon. Mid-level forcing for ascent and a modest increase in mid-level lapse rates may result in MUCAPE from 100-300 J/kg, with the base of the convective layer around 750 mb. Scattered elevated showers are expected to develop in the post-frontal regime, and some of this convection may become deep enough to support a few embedded thunderstorms from morning through early afternoon. ..Dial.. 02/05/2021
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