SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 PM CST Thu Feb 04 2021

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms will be possible during the morning and early
afternoon from central through southeast Texas and southwestern
Louisiana.

...Central and southeast Texas and southwestern Louisiana...

A cold front will have moved off the Texas and Louisiana coasts by
12Z Friday morning. A dry and stable boundary layer will reside in
the post-frontal regime. However, a shortwave trough currently near
the AZ/NM border will move through central and eastern TX during the
morning and into the lower MS Valley by afternoon. Mid-level forcing
for ascent and a modest increase in mid-level lapse rates may result
in MUCAPE from 100-300 J/kg, with the base of the convective layer
around 750 mb. Scattered elevated showers are expected to develop in
the post-frontal regime, and some of this convection may become deep
enough to support a few embedded thunderstorms from morning through
early afternoon.

..Dial.. 02/05/2021

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