SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CST Fri Feb 05 2021

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Saturday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough over the southern Plains Saturday morning will
quickly pivot eastward over the southeastern U.S. by Sunday morning.
At the surface, a stationary boundary will extend west-to-east
across the norther Gulf of Mexico and into the central/southern FL
peninsula early in the period. Height falls associated with the
upper trough will induce weak surface low development along the
boundary. The surface low is expected to be positioned near mouth of
the MS River or coastal MS by around 21z. The eastern extension of
the stationary boundary will retreat northward as a warm front
through the afternoon, potentially making it as far north as the
FL/GA border Saturday night.

Some enhancement of deep layer flow is expected as the upper trough
ejects eastward, and forecast shear would normally support organized
thunderstorms. However, destabilization remains in question despite
mid 60s F dewpoints spreading across the warm sector. Forecast
guidance remains consistent in depicting warm temperatures around
700 mb and weak to moderate inhibition that would be problematic for
warm sector storm development. Most guidance does not produce much
in the way of warm sector convection, with most of the thunderstorm
activity through Saturday afternoon being confined to elevated
convection north of the boundary. A strong storm can not be entirely
ruled out near the warm front in the vicinity of the FL Big
Bend/Cedar Key. However, given current unfavorable forecast
thermodynamic profiles and poor timing of the northward progression
of the warm front, confidence is too low to include severe
probabilities.

After 00z, frontal convection is likely as a trailing cold front
sweeps across the eastern Gulf and northern FL, but this activity is
not expected to be severe as the boundary layer quickly stabilizes
with loss of daytime heating, and strong forcing lifts northeast of
the region toward the Carolinas.

..Leitman.. 02/05/2021

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