SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CST Fri Feb 05 2021 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains Saturday morning will quickly pivot eastward over the southeastern U.S. by Sunday morning. At the surface, a stationary boundary will extend west-to-east across the norther Gulf of Mexico and into the central/southern FL peninsula early in the period. Height falls associated with the upper trough will induce weak surface low development along the boundary. The surface low is expected to be positioned near mouth of the MS River or coastal MS by around 21z. The eastern extension of the stationary boundary will retreat northward as a warm front through the afternoon, potentially making it as far north as the FL/GA border Saturday night. Some enhancement of deep layer flow is expected as the upper trough ejects eastward, and forecast shear would normally support organized thunderstorms. However, destabilization remains in question despite mid 60s F dewpoints spreading across the warm sector. Forecast guidance remains consistent in depicting warm temperatures around 700 mb and weak to moderate inhibition that would be problematic for warm sector storm development. Most guidance does not produce much in the way of warm sector convection, with most of the thunderstorm activity through Saturday afternoon being confined to elevated convection north of the boundary. A strong storm can not be entirely ruled out near the warm front in the vicinity of the FL Big Bend/Cedar Key. However, given current unfavorable forecast thermodynamic profiles and poor timing of the northward progression of the warm front, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities. After 00z, frontal convection is likely as a trailing cold front sweeps across the eastern Gulf and northern FL, but this activity is not expected to be severe as the boundary layer quickly stabilizes with loss of daytime heating, and strong forcing lifts northeast of the region toward the Carolinas. ..Leitman.. 02/05/2021
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