SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CST Fri Feb 05 2021

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing strong to
damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a tornado may impact parts
of the Florida Peninsula Saturday into Saturday night.

...Florida Peninsula...
Broad, large-scale upper troughing will be maintained over much of
the central/eastern CONUS on Saturday. Substantial low-level
moisture should remain confined to parts of FL through the period,
as a front lifts northward over the FL Peninsula. Although mid-level
heights should remain generally neutral across this region, some
guidance suggests that a narrow lobe of vorticity may overspread the
surface front Saturday afternoon/evening. Modest ascent associated
with this mid-level feature and increasing low-level warm advection
may prove sufficient for convective development along the
northward-advancing warm front by peak afternoon heating.

Most guidance suggests that mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will
be in place across the FL Peninsula to the south of the front. A
modest low-level inversion may inhibit storm development through
much of the day. Still, diurnal heating of the moistening low-level
airmass should support 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late Saturday
afternoon and into the early evening. Strong southwesterly mid-level
flow of 45-55 kt will foster similar values of deep-layer shear
across the warm sector. Organized storms may occur late Saturday
afternoon and evening, including the potential for isolated
supercells near the warm front across the northern FL Peninsula. All
severe hazards appear possible, but isolated strong to damaging
winds with any short line segments/bows may be the primary threat
given the strength of the low/mid-level flow. With effective SRH
around 100-200 m2/s2, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out either. 

There may also be some potential for isolated strong to severe
storms to develop along the surface boundary Saturday night into
early Sunday morning as it moves southeastward as a cold front
across the central FL Peninsula. Overall, the main uncertainty
appears to be the coverage of surface-based storms across the warm
sector, as large-scale forcing for ascent is expected to remain
rather nebulous and the low-level inversion persists through much of
the day. Still, given the favorable shear, adequate thermodynamics,
and a surface boundary to focus convective development, the
inclusion of a Marginal risk appears appropriate at this time.

..Gleason.. 02/05/2021

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