SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Feb 05 2021 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing strong to damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a tornado may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula Saturday into Saturday night. ...Florida Peninsula... Broad, large-scale upper troughing will be maintained over much of the central/eastern CONUS on Saturday. Substantial low-level moisture should remain confined to parts of FL through the period, as a front lifts northward over the FL Peninsula. Although mid-level heights should remain generally neutral across this region, some guidance suggests that a narrow lobe of vorticity may overspread the surface front Saturday afternoon/evening. Modest ascent associated with this mid-level feature and increasing low-level warm advection may prove sufficient for convective development along the northward-advancing warm front by peak afternoon heating. Most guidance suggests that mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will be in place across the FL Peninsula to the south of the front. A modest low-level inversion may inhibit storm development through much of the day. Still, diurnal heating of the moistening low-level airmass should support 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late Saturday afternoon and into the early evening. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow of 45-55 kt will foster similar values of deep-layer shear across the warm sector. Organized storms may occur late Saturday afternoon and evening, including the potential for isolated supercells near the warm front across the northern FL Peninsula. All severe hazards appear possible, but isolated strong to damaging winds with any short line segments/bows may be the primary threat given the strength of the low/mid-level flow. With effective SRH around 100-200 m2/s2, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out either. There may also be some potential for isolated strong to severe storms to develop along the surface boundary Saturday night into early Sunday morning as it moves southeastward as a cold front across the central FL Peninsula. Overall, the main uncertainty appears to be the coverage of surface-based storms across the warm sector, as large-scale forcing for ascent is expected to remain rather nebulous and the low-level inversion persists through much of the day. Still, given the favorable shear, adequate thermodynamics, and a surface boundary to focus convective development, the inclusion of a Marginal risk appears appropriate at this time. ..Gleason.. 02/05/2021
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