SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Feb 05 2021 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of the Gulf Coast and Southeast states. ...20Z Update... The only change to the outlook has been to remove parts of central/east TX from the general thunderstorm area, as additional development behind the ongoing convection is unlikely. ..Gleason.. 02/05/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Fri Feb 05 2021/ ...TX/LA... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough moving across central TX. a cluster of elevated showers and a few thunderstorms are noted in association with this system. This activity will likely persist through the afternoon and spread eastward into southeast TX and eventually into LA this evening. Weak CAPE and a cool/stable near-surface layer should preclude severe storms. ...FL/GA... A weak surface cold front is sagging into parts of GA and the FL Panhandle today, with scattered showers occurring along/ahead of the boundary. Weak but sufficient CAPE will develop in this region to pose some risk of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Present indications are that lightning activity will be rather sparse. ...South FL... Late tonight, southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s dewpoints and weak instability into south FL. This may lead to a few thunderstorms mainly after 06z.
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