Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CST Fri Feb 05 2021 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper trough will extend from Manitoba/western Ontario southward through the Plains early Day 4/Mon. The trough will quickly pivot eastward to the MS Valley by Day 5/Tue morning, before moving offshore the Atlantic coast by Day 6/Wed morning. Surface low pressure will develop east/northeast from TX to the Mid-South and finally to the mid-Atlantic during this time, bringing a trailing cold front southeast across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. Ahead of the cold front, a warm front will lift northward across the northern Gulf/south FL on Monday, allowing 60s dewpoints to spread northward across FL and much of the Gulf Coast vicinity. Thunderstorms are likely during this time from east TX into the lower MS Valley/Southeast, but likely will remain elevated and on the cool side of the warm front, limiting severe potential. The cold front will usher in a polar air mass. Strong high pressure building over the Plains and Midwest, characterized by a cold/stable air mass, will preclude severe potential late in the period.
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