Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 AM CST Fri Feb 05 2021

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper trough will extend from Manitoba/western Ontario
southward through the Plains early Day 4/Mon. The trough will
quickly pivot eastward to the MS Valley by Day 5/Tue morning, before
moving offshore the Atlantic coast by Day 6/Wed morning. Surface low
pressure will develop east/northeast from TX to the Mid-South and
finally to the mid-Atlantic during this time, bringing a trailing
cold front southeast across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. 

Ahead of the cold front, a warm front will lift northward across the
northern Gulf/south FL on Monday, allowing 60s dewpoints to spread
northward across FL and much of the Gulf Coast vicinity.
Thunderstorms are likely during this time from east TX into the
lower MS Valley/Southeast, but likely will remain elevated and on
the cool side of the warm front, limiting severe potential. The cold
front will usher in a polar air mass. Strong high pressure building
over the Plains and Midwest, characterized by a cold/stable air
mass, will preclude severe potential late in the period.

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