SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CST Fri Feb 05 2021

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing strong to
damaging winds, a tornado, and hail may impact parts of the Florida
Peninsula today into tonight.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level vorticity lobe is forecast to move across the northeast
Gulf of Mexico and the northern FL Peninsula during the day.  A
larger-scale trough east of the Rockies will feature an amplifying
shortwave trough as it moves from OK eastward to the southern
Appalachians during the period.  In the low levels, a
southward-moving front over the north-central part of the FL
Peninsula will stall during the morning and advance northward into
north FL during the day.  A maritime airmass characterized by 60s
dewpoints will advect northward through the FL Peninsula south of
the boundary.  

...FL...
The initial weak mid-level perturbation will likely result in
scattered clouds and showers/thunderstorms, primarily north of the
front during the day, where forcing for ascent will focus.  The
strong wind profile and a destabilizing boundary layer will
conditionally support the risk for a few stronger storms developing
during peak heating, with possible activity moving ashore from the
northeast Gulf during the afternoon.  

By the evening, a southwesterly LLJ is forecast to intensify over
the northern half of the peninsula and augment low-level shear.  A
conditional tornado/damaging-wind risk may maximize during the late
evening into the overnight near and north of I-4 into north FL.  A
small increase in severe probabilities could be introduced in later
outlooks if confidence increases.  The threat for a tornado will
probably wane as the developing surface low near the coastal
Carolinas becomes increasingly displaced from FL by early Sunday
morning.

..Smith/Karstens.. 02/06/2021

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