SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Fri Feb 05 2021 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing strong to damaging winds, a tornado, and hail may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today into tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level vorticity lobe is forecast to move across the northeast Gulf of Mexico and the northern FL Peninsula during the day. A larger-scale trough east of the Rockies will feature an amplifying shortwave trough as it moves from OK eastward to the southern Appalachians during the period. In the low levels, a southward-moving front over the north-central part of the FL Peninsula will stall during the morning and advance northward into north FL during the day. A maritime airmass characterized by 60s dewpoints will advect northward through the FL Peninsula south of the boundary. ...FL... The initial weak mid-level perturbation will likely result in scattered clouds and showers/thunderstorms, primarily north of the front during the day, where forcing for ascent will focus. The strong wind profile and a destabilizing boundary layer will conditionally support the risk for a few stronger storms developing during peak heating, with possible activity moving ashore from the northeast Gulf during the afternoon. By the evening, a southwesterly LLJ is forecast to intensify over the northern half of the peninsula and augment low-level shear. A conditional tornado/damaging-wind risk may maximize during the late evening into the overnight near and north of I-4 into north FL. A small increase in severe probabilities could be introduced in later outlooks if confidence increases. The threat for a tornado will probably wane as the developing surface low near the coastal Carolinas becomes increasingly displaced from FL by early Sunday morning. ..Smith/Karstens.. 02/06/2021
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