SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CST Sat Feb 06 2021 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL FL SUNDAY MORNING... CORRECTED FOR MRGL RISK HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong-to-severe thunderstorms are possible across central Florida Sunday morning. ...Central Florida Vicinity... A shortwave upper trough embedded in larger-scale cyclonically curved flow over the eastern half of the CONUS will be positioned from the Mid-South to western FL Sunday morning. A cold front will extend from the surface low near the Outer Banks of NC southwestward across northern FL. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period along/just ahead of the front. Weak instability, and modest midlevel lapse rates will overlap with strong effective shear, supporting organized cells. Low level flow ahead of the front will be veered across the peninsula, resulting in small, but curved low level hodographs. While hodographs will be small, 0-1 km shear and SRH will adequately support low level rotation. A couple of strong to severe storms are possible for a few hours during the morning as the front sags southward across the central peninsula, with a brief/weak tornado and/or locally damaging gust being the main hazards. The upper trough will then pivot east/northeast of the area and subsidence, along with weakening shear, will quickly diminish any severe threat with southward extent. ..Leitman.. 02/06/2021
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