SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 AM CST Sat Feb 06 2021

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
FL SUNDAY MORNING...

CORRECTED FOR  MRGL RISK HEADLINE

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong-to-severe thunderstorms are possible across
central Florida Sunday morning.

...Central Florida Vicinity...

A shortwave upper trough embedded in larger-scale cyclonically
curved flow over the eastern half of the CONUS will be positioned
from the Mid-South to western FL Sunday morning. A cold front will
extend from the surface low near the Outer Banks of NC southwestward
across northern FL. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
at the beginning of the period along/just ahead of the front. Weak
instability, and modest midlevel lapse rates will overlap with
strong effective shear, supporting organized cells. Low level flow
ahead of the front will be veered across the peninsula, resulting in
small, but curved low level hodographs. While hodographs will be
small, 0-1 km shear and SRH will adequately support low level
rotation. A couple of strong to severe storms are possible for a few
hours during the morning as the front sags southward across the
central peninsula, with a brief/weak tornado and/or locally damaging
gust being the main hazards. The upper trough will then pivot
east/northeast of the area and subsidence, along with weakening
shear, will quickly diminish any severe threat with southward
extent.

..Leitman.. 02/06/2021

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