SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sat Feb 06 2021 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing strong to damaging winds, a tornado, and some hail may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today into tonight. ...Central/north FL this evening through tonight.. A low-amplitude shortwave trough over OK/TX this morning will progress eastward to the southern Appalachians/Carolinas by early Sunday morning, with associated surface cyclogenesis expected just offshore of the Carolinas along a coastal front. Prior to the cyclone forming off the Carolinas tonight, a warm/moist air mass will spread northward across the FL peninsula, resulting in destabilization into central and parts of north FL. Initial clusters of storms will spread across north FL from the northeast Gulf of Mexico, in a zone of strengthening warm advection/ascent along the warm front. Though low-level lapse rates will be rather modest, sufficient moistening should occur by tonight for storms rooted very near the surface along the front. Given MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg, effective bulk shear near 50 kt, effective SRH near 200 m2/s2 and midlevel lapse rates in excess of 7.5 C/km, there will be potential for organized clusters/supercells capable of producing damaging winds, isolated large hail, and perhaps a tornado. Convection will likely persist in bands along and ahead of the cold front overnight across central FL through 12z. ...Southeast FL by early afternoon... Richer low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints of 68-71 F) will spread northward across south and central FL today, with the greater destabilization expected across southeast FL the first half of the day. Isolated thunderstorm development is expected from midday into this afternoon across interior south FL near the moisture gradient, as surface temperatures exceed 80 F and boost MLCAPE to near 1000 J/kg, while reducing convective inhibition shown by the 12z Miami sounding. Meanwhile, effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt and some low-level hodograph curvature will support a low-end supercell and severe-storm threat this afternoon. ..Thompson/Broyles.. 02/06/2021
There’s more click here.