SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Sat Feb 06 2021

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH FL...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing strong to
damaging winds, a tornado, and some hail may impact parts of the
Florida Peninsula today into tonight.

...Central/north FL this evening through tonight..
A low-amplitude shortwave trough over OK/TX this morning will
progress eastward to the southern Appalachians/Carolinas by early
Sunday morning, with associated surface cyclogenesis expected just
offshore of the Carolinas along a coastal front.  Prior to the
cyclone forming off the Carolinas tonight, a warm/moist air mass
will spread northward across the FL peninsula, resulting in
destabilization into central and parts of north FL.  Initial
clusters of storms will spread across north FL from the northeast
Gulf of Mexico, in a zone of strengthening warm advection/ascent
along the warm front.

Though low-level lapse rates will be rather modest, sufficient
moistening should occur by tonight for storms rooted very near the
surface along the front.  Given MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg, effective
bulk shear near 50 kt, effective SRH near 200 m2/s2 and midlevel
lapse rates in excess of 7.5 C/km, there will be potential for
organized clusters/supercells capable of producing damaging winds,
isolated large hail, and perhaps a tornado.  Convection will likely
persist in bands along and ahead of the cold front overnight across
central FL through 12z.

...Southeast FL by early afternoon...
Richer low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints of 68-71 F) will
spread northward across south and central FL today, with the greater
destabilization expected across southeast FL the first half of the
day.  Isolated thunderstorm development is expected from midday into
this afternoon across interior south FL near the moisture gradient,
as surface temperatures exceed 80 F and boost MLCAPE to near 1000
J/kg, while reducing convective inhibition shown by the 12z Miami
sounding.  Meanwhile, effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt and some
low-level hodograph curvature will support a low-end supercell and
severe-storm threat this afternoon.

..Thompson/Broyles.. 02/06/2021

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