SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CST Sat Feb 06 2021

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong storms are possible across central Florida Sunday
morning.

...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic flow will prevail over the entire U.S. Sunday, as the
main polar vortex consolidates across central Canada.  At the
leading edge of the associated arctic low-level airmass, a cold
front -- trailing southwestward from a low progged to lie near the
North Carolina Outer Banks early Sunday morning -- will move
steadily southeastward across Florida.  As an associated short-wave
trough embedded in the broader cyclonic flow aloft shifts off the
mid-Atlantic coast and into the northwestern Atlantic, the surface
front will weaken steadily over South Florida overnight.

...Central Florida...
As a cold front advances southward across central Florida during the
day, combination of a moist pre-frontal boundary layer but weak
lapse rates -- particularly at low levels -- will support only
modest CAPE.  As such, ongoing convection is forecast to be largely
disorganized.  However, with moderately strong low- to mid-level
flow lingering atop the region, a stronger storm or two cannot be
ruled out during the morning hours.  Any stronger storm would be
accompanied by some potential for a locally strong gust or two, or
possibly even a brief tornado.  However, any risk should further
diminish into the afternoon, as flow slackens and the parent upper
system shifts northeastward off the middle Atlantic coast.

..Goss.. 02/06/2021

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