SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Sat Feb 06 2021 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms are possible across central Florida Sunday morning. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will prevail over the entire U.S. Sunday, as the main polar vortex consolidates across central Canada. At the leading edge of the associated arctic low-level airmass, a cold front -- trailing southwestward from a low progged to lie near the North Carolina Outer Banks early Sunday morning -- will move steadily southeastward across Florida. As an associated short-wave trough embedded in the broader cyclonic flow aloft shifts off the mid-Atlantic coast and into the northwestern Atlantic, the surface front will weaken steadily over South Florida overnight. ...Central Florida... As a cold front advances southward across central Florida during the day, combination of a moist pre-frontal boundary layer but weak lapse rates -- particularly at low levels -- will support only modest CAPE. As such, ongoing convection is forecast to be largely disorganized. However, with moderately strong low- to mid-level flow lingering atop the region, a stronger storm or two cannot be ruled out during the morning hours. Any stronger storm would be accompanied by some potential for a locally strong gust or two, or possibly even a brief tornado. However, any risk should further diminish into the afternoon, as flow slackens and the parent upper system shifts northeastward off the middle Atlantic coast. ..Goss.. 02/06/2021
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