SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Sat Feb 06 2021

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing strong to
damaging winds, a tornado, and some hail are expected over parts of
the Florida Peninsula today into tonight.

...Discussion...
No appreciable changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at
this time, as prior forecast reasoning remains reflective of
currently anticipated severe-weather potential.  Convection has
increased over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, and should gradually
spread/expand inland across northern and central Florida.  Other
storm development is expected to continue in the vicinity of the
northward-moving warm front over central Florida.  Low-probability
risk for all three severe hazards, with a few of the strongest
storms, remains evident.

..Goss.. 02/06/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sat Feb 06 2021/

...Central/Southeast FL this afternoon...
Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.  A
low-amplitude progressive shortwave trough is noted this morning
over the central Gulf of Mexico moving rapidly eastward toward FL. 
Ahead of this system, southerly low level winds are increasing over
FL, aiding in the slow northward progression of a weak surface warm
front.  Broken clouds and partial daytime heating is occurring south
of the front, which combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s, will
yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg.  Morning CAM
solutions suggest a few thunderstorms may develop during the
early-mid afternoon over the central peninsula and track toward the
east-central coast.  These storms would be near the retreating warm
front, and in a vertical shear profiles sufficient for updraft
rotation.  These storms could pose a threat of large hail and
gusty/damaging winds.

...Central/Northern FL after dark...
The main cluster of convection associated with the aforementioned
shortwave trough is expected to move into the FL Big Bend region
after dark.  Model solutions are in general agreement that these
storms will track east-northeastward along the retreating warm front
through the overnight period.  Relatively strong wind fields and
lift in this region suggest a risk of a supercell structures,
capable of damaging wind, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two.

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