SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Sat Feb 06 2021 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing strong to damaging winds, a tornado, and some hail are expected over parts of the Florida Peninsula today into tonight. ...Discussion... No appreciable changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time, as prior forecast reasoning remains reflective of currently anticipated severe-weather potential. Convection has increased over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, and should gradually spread/expand inland across northern and central Florida. Other storm development is expected to continue in the vicinity of the northward-moving warm front over central Florida. Low-probability risk for all three severe hazards, with a few of the strongest storms, remains evident. ..Goss.. 02/06/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sat Feb 06 2021/ ...Central/Southeast FL this afternoon... Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A low-amplitude progressive shortwave trough is noted this morning over the central Gulf of Mexico moving rapidly eastward toward FL. Ahead of this system, southerly low level winds are increasing over FL, aiding in the slow northward progression of a weak surface warm front. Broken clouds and partial daytime heating is occurring south of the front, which combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s, will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg. Morning CAM solutions suggest a few thunderstorms may develop during the early-mid afternoon over the central peninsula and track toward the east-central coast. These storms would be near the retreating warm front, and in a vertical shear profiles sufficient for updraft rotation. These storms could pose a threat of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Central/Northern FL after dark... The main cluster of convection associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough is expected to move into the FL Big Bend region after dark. Model solutions are in general agreement that these storms will track east-northeastward along the retreating warm front through the overnight period. Relatively strong wind fields and lift in this region suggest a risk of a supercell structures, capable of damaging wind, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two.
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