Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CST Sat Feb 06 2021 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Run-to-run model consistency continues to be an issue in the medium to extended time range. In the mean, upper troughing will persist across much of the CONUS, with a series of embedded shortwave troughs ejecting from the Rockies eastward through the period. Surface high pressure will generally be maintained over the northern Plains and much of the Midwest, resulting in a cold and dry air mass over those regions for the next week or so. Guidance has wavered with regard to how far south this arctic air mass intrusion will progress and the timing of such. Some guidance suggests that a cold front will dive southeast across the southern Plains and into the Southeast late in the week, potentially leading to thunderstorms and a low-end severe threat across the Gulf Coast states around Day 5/Wed-Day 6/Thu. However, this signal has not been consistent. As such, confidence is low in any severe potential during the Day 4-8 period.
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