Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 AM CST Sat Feb 06 2021

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Run-to-run model consistency continues to be an issue in the medium
to extended time range. In the mean, upper troughing will persist
across much of the CONUS, with a series of embedded shortwave
troughs ejecting from the Rockies eastward through the period.
Surface high pressure will generally be maintained over the northern
Plains and much of the Midwest, resulting in a cold and dry air mass
over those regions for the next week or so. Guidance has wavered
with regard to how far south this arctic air mass intrusion will
progress and the timing of such. Some guidance suggests that a cold
front will dive southeast across the southern Plains and into the
Southeast late in the week, potentially leading to thunderstorms and
a low-end severe threat across the Gulf Coast states around Day
5/Wed-Day 6/Thu. However, this signal has not been consistent. As
such, confidence is low in any severe potential during the Day 4-8
period.

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