SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Sat Feb 06 2021 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing strong to damaging winds, a tornado, and some marginally severe hail are forecast over the northern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough moving east across the lower MS Valley. An associated speed max is forecast to strengthen to 100 kt at 500 mb by early Sunday morning over the Carolinas as the disturbance moves to the southern Appalachians overnight. A weak surface low over the northern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to quickly develop northeastward and be located over the GA/SC shelf waters after midnight. A surface warm front's advancement northward into the northern FL Peninsula has been partially thwarted by reinforcing cold pool production by convection paralleling the warm front this evening. The warm front may advance north another tier of counties by late evening before stalling as the low develops to the northeast away from the region later tonight. The primary impetus for additional storm development will occur as a zone of large-scale ascent, associated with the mid-level disturbance, becomes maximized during the late evening as it moves from the eastern Gulf across the FL Peninsula. Some slight intensification of the low-level wind field is expected. Given the presence of mid-upper 60s F dewpoints and strong shear (reference the 7pm EST Tampa raob), an isolated risk for a supercell tornado appears plausible, along with a continuing threat for damaging gusts with the stronger storms. Storms may eventually develop as far south as a Cape Coral to Lake Okeechobee line by 7am EST Sunday. ..Smith.. 02/07/2021
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