SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CST Sat Feb 06 2021

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing strong to
damaging winds, a tornado, and some marginally severe hail are
forecast over the northern and central portions of the Florida
Peninsula tonight.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a potent mid-level
shortwave trough moving east across the lower MS Valley.  An
associated speed max is forecast to strengthen to 100 kt at 500 mb
by early Sunday morning over the Carolinas as the disturbance moves
to the southern Appalachians overnight.  A weak surface low over the
northern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to quickly develop northeastward
and be located over the GA/SC shelf waters after midnight.  

A surface warm front's advancement northward into the northern FL
Peninsula has been partially thwarted by reinforcing cold pool
production by convection paralleling the warm front this evening. 
The warm front may advance north another tier of counties by late
evening before stalling as the low develops to the northeast away
from the region later tonight.  

The primary impetus for additional storm development will occur as a
zone of large-scale ascent, associated with the mid-level
disturbance, becomes maximized during the late evening as it moves
from the eastern Gulf across the FL Peninsula.  Some slight
intensification of the low-level wind field is expected.  Given the
presence of mid-upper 60s F dewpoints and strong shear (reference
the 7pm EST Tampa raob), an isolated risk for a supercell tornado
appears plausible, along with a continuing threat for damaging gusts
with the stronger storms.  Storms may eventually develop as far
south as a Cape Coral to Lake Okeechobee line by 7am EST Sunday.

..Smith.. 02/07/2021

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