SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 AM CST Sun Feb 07 2021 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms are possible across central Florida this morning. ...Central FL this morning... In the wake of a midlevel shortwave trough moving quickly over GA and the Carolinas, a surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward across central FL. A primarily pre-frontal band of storms persists this morning, and this convection will likewise spread slowly southward through late morning and into early afternoon. Boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F are contributing MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg as of 12z, in an environment with effective bulk shear of 45-50 kt. However, vertical shear is expected to weaken gradually through the morning into the afternoon as low-level flow veers and weakens over time, in response to the departing cyclone off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado cannot be ruled out this morning, but the overall severe threat is expected to slowly diminish through the day, in tandem with the weakening vertical shear and weakening forcing for ascent along and ahead of the cold front. ..Thompson/Broyles.. 02/07/2021
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