SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 AM CST Sun Feb 07 2021

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL FL...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong storms are possible across central Florida this
morning.

...Central FL this morning...
In the wake of a midlevel shortwave trough moving quickly over GA
and the Carolinas, a surface cold front will continue to move slowly
southeastward across central FL.  A primarily pre-frontal band of
storms persists this morning, and this convection will likewise
spread slowly southward through late morning and into early
afternoon.  Boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F are contributing
MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg as of 12z, in an environment with effective
bulk shear of 45-50 kt.  However, vertical shear is expected to
weaken gradually through the morning into the afternoon as low-level
flow veers and weakens over time, in response to the departing
cyclone off the Mid-Atlantic coast.  Isolated damaging gusts and
perhaps a tornado cannot be ruled out this morning, but the overall
severe threat is expected to slowly diminish through the day, in
tandem with the weakening vertical shear and weakening forcing for
ascent along and ahead of the cold front.

..Thompson/Broyles.. 02/07/2021

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