Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 AM CST Sun Feb 07 2021

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

A series of shortwave upper troughs are expected to migrate through
larger-scale troughing across the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period.
Some strong to severe storm potential may develop from the ArkLaTex
vicinity into the lower MS Valley on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu as the initial
shortwave ejects eastward from the southwest U.S. to the
Mid-Atlantic during that time frame. Southerly flow ahead of the
trough will allow moisture to surge northward from southern and
eastern TX through the Gulf coast states ahead of an arctic cold
front. This warm advection regime ahead of the front would likely
result in elevated thunderstorm activity to the cool side of the
warm front over the Gulf coast region, or undercut by the advancing
cold front. Medium range guidance run-to-run consistency continues
to be poor, and the timing of these features varies, resulting in
low predictability of severe potential. 

Beyond Day 5/Thu, guidance suggests several surges of arctic air
will overspread much of the CONUS, resulting in cold and stable
conditions and limiting thunderstorm activity through the weekend.

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