Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CST Sun Feb 07 2021 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... A series of shortwave upper troughs are expected to migrate through larger-scale troughing across the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period. Some strong to severe storm potential may develop from the ArkLaTex vicinity into the lower MS Valley on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu as the initial shortwave ejects eastward from the southwest U.S. to the Mid-Atlantic during that time frame. Southerly flow ahead of the trough will allow moisture to surge northward from southern and eastern TX through the Gulf coast states ahead of an arctic cold front. This warm advection regime ahead of the front would likely result in elevated thunderstorm activity to the cool side of the warm front over the Gulf coast region, or undercut by the advancing cold front. Medium range guidance run-to-run consistency continues to be poor, and the timing of these features varies, resulting in low predictability of severe potential. Beyond Day 5/Thu, guidance suggests several surges of arctic air will overspread much of the CONUS, resulting in cold and stable conditions and limiting thunderstorm activity through the weekend.
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