SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CST Mon Feb 08 2021

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday.

...Synopsis...

A low level warm advection regime will continue across parts of TX
through the Gulf coast region on Wednesday ahead of an upper trough
ejecting eastward into the Plains. In the low levels, an arctic air
mass will surge south/southeast across the southern Plains and
mid-MS/lower OH Valleys. By Thursday morning, the arctic front will
extend from the central Appalachians to northern LA, arcing
west/southwest across east TX into the Edwards Plateau. 

A moist air mass will exist ahead of the front from southern/eastern
TX through the central Gulf coast. While weak instability will exist
across the warm sector, where dewpoints will be in the upper 50s to
mid 60s F dewpoints, any thunderstorm activity will likely be
elevated on the cool side of the boundary in strong isentropic
ascent. Furthermore, any storms that develop in the warm sector
would likely be quickly undercut by the south/southeastward surging
cold front given shear vectors parallel to the boundary. While a
strong storm or two can not be ruled out, overall severe potential
appears low at this time.

..Leitman.. 02/08/2021

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