SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Mon Feb 08 2021 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A low level warm advection regime will continue across parts of TX through the Gulf coast region on Wednesday ahead of an upper trough ejecting eastward into the Plains. In the low levels, an arctic air mass will surge south/southeast across the southern Plains and mid-MS/lower OH Valleys. By Thursday morning, the arctic front will extend from the central Appalachians to northern LA, arcing west/southwest across east TX into the Edwards Plateau. A moist air mass will exist ahead of the front from southern/eastern TX through the central Gulf coast. While weak instability will exist across the warm sector, where dewpoints will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints, any thunderstorm activity will likely be elevated on the cool side of the boundary in strong isentropic ascent. Furthermore, any storms that develop in the warm sector would likely be quickly undercut by the south/southeastward surging cold front given shear vectors parallel to the boundary. While a strong storm or two can not be ruled out, overall severe potential appears low at this time. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2021
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