SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 AM CST Tue Feb 09 2021

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday.

...Synopsis...

A series of upper shortwave troughs from the central High Plains to
northwest Mexico will weaken as they shift east across the Plains
and Midwest. Strong surface high pressure will continue to develop
southward from Canada, enveloping much of the U.S. east of the
Rockies by Friday morning and bringing a very cold arctic airmass
southward. Thursday morning, a surface cold front will extend from
the TN Valley southwestward into south TX. A warm advection regime
will persist across the Gulf coast vicinity ahead of the upper
shortwave trough, with showers and isolated thunderstorms likely
ongoing across parts of the TX coastal plains into the lower MS
Valley. 

Isentropic ascent with boundary-parallel deep-layer flow will result
in mainly elevated convection on the cool side of the boundary.
Surface dewpoints in the 60s F will be in place ahead of the
southeastward-sagging cold front, and modest midlevel lapse rates
will aid in weak instability. While a strong storm or two can not be
ruled out, upper forcing will deteriorate as the ejecting shortwave
trough weakens. Effective shear also will remain poor in the absence
of stronger surface cyclogenesis, limiting the longevity of any
stronger elevated storms. As such, severe potential appears low at
this time.

..Leitman.. 02/09/2021

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