SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CST Tue Feb 09 2021 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A series of upper shortwave troughs from the central High Plains to northwest Mexico will weaken as they shift east across the Plains and Midwest. Strong surface high pressure will continue to develop southward from Canada, enveloping much of the U.S. east of the Rockies by Friday morning and bringing a very cold arctic airmass southward. Thursday morning, a surface cold front will extend from the TN Valley southwestward into south TX. A warm advection regime will persist across the Gulf coast vicinity ahead of the upper shortwave trough, with showers and isolated thunderstorms likely ongoing across parts of the TX coastal plains into the lower MS Valley. Isentropic ascent with boundary-parallel deep-layer flow will result in mainly elevated convection on the cool side of the boundary. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F will be in place ahead of the southeastward-sagging cold front, and modest midlevel lapse rates will aid in weak instability. While a strong storm or two can not be ruled out, upper forcing will deteriorate as the ejecting shortwave trough weakens. Effective shear also will remain poor in the absence of stronger surface cyclogenesis, limiting the longevity of any stronger elevated storms. As such, severe potential appears low at this time. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2021
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