SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CST Tue Feb 09 2021 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...South-Central to Southeast States... An arctic airmass will continue to sink south/southeast across portions of the southeastern U.S. on Thursday. At the beginning of the period, a cold front will extend from northeast MS into southwest LA, and then arcing along the TX coast into far south TX. A shortwave upper trough over the southern Rockies and northwest Mexico will weaken as it ejects eastward over the Plains. Southwesterly deep layer flow ahead of the trough will result in warm advection across the Gulf coast states. Isentropic ascent over this shallow arctic airmass will result in elevated convection across parts of the TX into the lower MS Valley, spreading eastward with time across the Southeast. Given the elevated nature of this convection, modest lapse rates and weak instability, severe potential is expected to remain low across much of the region. There could be some potential for a few stronger storms across parts of AL into GA Thursday afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the southeastward-advancing cold front. Some guidance depicts a weak surface low developing over this area with backed surface winds enhancing effective shear. However, deep layer flow will remain parallel to the surface boundary, and any surface-based convection would be quickly undercut by the cold front. Furthermore, in the absence of strong upper forcing, even the most favorable forecast soundings depict a persistent warm layer around 700 mb, resulting in poor lapse rates and limiting instability. Overall, severe potential appears quite conditional and limited in space/time, precluding severe probs at this time. ..Leitman.. 02/10/2021
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