SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CST Tue Feb 09 2021

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday.

...South-Central to Southeast States...

An arctic airmass will continue to sink south/southeast across
portions of the southeastern U.S. on Thursday. At the beginning of
the period, a cold front will extend from northeast MS into
southwest LA, and then arcing along the TX coast into far south TX.
A shortwave upper trough over the southern Rockies and northwest
Mexico will weaken as it ejects eastward over the Plains.
Southwesterly deep layer flow ahead of the trough will result in
warm advection across the Gulf coast states. Isentropic ascent over
this shallow arctic airmass will result in elevated convection
across parts of the TX into the lower MS Valley, spreading eastward
with time across the Southeast. Given the elevated nature of this
convection, modest lapse rates and weak instability, severe
potential is expected to remain low across much of the region. 

There could be some potential for a few stronger storms across parts
of AL into GA Thursday afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the
southeastward-advancing cold front. Some guidance depicts a weak
surface low developing over this area with backed surface winds
enhancing effective shear. However, deep layer flow will remain
parallel to the surface boundary, and any surface-based convection
would be quickly undercut by the cold front. Furthermore, in the
absence of strong upper forcing, even the most favorable forecast
soundings depict a persistent warm layer around 700 mb, resulting in
poor lapse rates and limiting instability. Overall, severe potential
appears quite conditional and limited in space/time, precluding
severe probs at this time.

..Leitman.. 02/10/2021

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