SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Wed Feb 10 2021 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Discussion... The large arctic cyclone over central Canada will continue evolving over the Prairie Provinces today, with broad/fast/weakly cyclonic flow extending southward into the central U.S. Farther south and east, more zonal westerly flow is progged. Meanwhile, a trough in the southern stream is progged to move across the Four Corners states and adjacent Baja/northern Mexico through the period. At the surface, a weak west-to-east baroclinic zone -- currently extending across northern Florida and the Gulf Coast region -- will drift slowly northward, eventually/gradually merging with the arctic front lingering from the Appalachians southwestward across the lower Mississippi Valley to coastal Texas. A broad zone of convection -- including occasional/embedded thunderstorms -- will extend from Texas into the Southeast. Most of the convection will be elevated atop a stable boundary layer north of the northward-drifting marine front over the Southeast, and north of the main arctic front over Texas. A few weak/near surface-based storms will be possible nearer the Gulf Coast, but modest CAPE/shear suggests storms will remain disorganized. Later in the period, an increase in elevated storms may occur over portions of Texas -- from the Del Rio area southward along the Rio Grande Valley, and eastward across central Texas. While steeper lapse rates aloft could support a few stronger elevated updrafts, and associated risk for hail that could locally approach severe levels, risk appears too low/isolated to warrant introduction of MRGL risk/5% hail probability. ..Goss/Lyons.. 02/10/2021
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