SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Wed Feb 10 2021

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

...Discussion...
The large arctic cyclone over central Canada will continue evolving
over the Prairie Provinces today, with broad/fast/weakly cyclonic
flow extending southward into the central U.S.

Farther south and east, more zonal westerly flow is progged. 
Meanwhile, a trough in the southern stream is progged to move across
the Four Corners states and adjacent Baja/northern Mexico through
the period.

At the surface, a weak west-to-east baroclinic zone -- currently
extending across northern Florida and the Gulf Coast region -- will
drift slowly northward, eventually/gradually merging with the arctic
front lingering from the Appalachians southwestward across the lower
Mississippi Valley to coastal Texas.

A broad zone of convection -- including occasional/embedded
thunderstorms -- will extend from Texas into the Southeast.  Most of
the convection will be elevated atop a stable boundary layer north
of the northward-drifting marine front over the Southeast, and north
of the main arctic front over Texas.  A few weak/near surface-based
storms will be possible nearer the Gulf Coast, but modest CAPE/shear
suggests storms will remain disorganized.

Later in the period, an increase in elevated storms may occur over
portions of Texas -- from the Del Rio area southward along the Rio
Grande Valley, and eastward across central Texas.  While steeper
lapse rates aloft could support a few stronger elevated updrafts,
and associated risk for hail that could locally approach severe
levels, risk appears too low/isolated to warrant introduction of
MRGL risk/5% hail probability.

..Goss/Lyons.. 02/10/2021

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