SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CST Wed Feb 10 2021

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are likely Thursday from Louisiana into
Mississippi, and across Alabama and northern Georgia. A few strong
wind gusts cannot be ruled out, but severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A tight midlevel temperature gradient will remain across the
northern states as an upper low rotates over
Alberta/Manitoba/Ontario. Cold air will remain entrenched across the
Plains and Great Lakes, with the cold front progressing across the
Southeast.

The front will extend from southern LA across MS and into northern
AL Thursday morning, with a warm front over central GA. These
boundaries will progress across these states during the day, and
provide a focus for thunderstorms with a moist air mass in place.

...MS/AL/GA...
Showers and scattered thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing near
and north of the cold front Thursday morning, which will extend from
southern LA across MS and into northern AL. Ahead of the front,
models indicate only modest low-level lapse rates developing during
the day. However, SBCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg may develop due to
60s F dewpoints.

Despite the lack of heating, the slow-moving nature of the cold
front may allow for clusters of storms to gain some cold pool
potential. Large-scale ascent associated with the right entrance
region of the upper jet will further aid storm coverage. In terms of
severe potential, low-level wind fields appear marginal for much
downward momentum transfer with 850 mb speeds of 20-30 kt. The lack
of appreciable instability will also limit downdraft potential.
Low-level SRH will be maximized ahead of a weak low and near a warm
front over northern AL and GA, but with only a weak surface trough
and veered 850 mb winds. As such, will maintain less than 5% severe
probabilities.

..Jewell.. 02/10/2021

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