SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Wed Feb 10 2021 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely Thursday from Louisiana into Mississippi, and across Alabama and northern Georgia. A few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out, but severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A tight midlevel temperature gradient will remain across the northern states as an upper low rotates over Alberta/Manitoba/Ontario. Cold air will remain entrenched across the Plains and Great Lakes, with the cold front progressing across the Southeast. The front will extend from southern LA across MS and into northern AL Thursday morning, with a warm front over central GA. These boundaries will progress across these states during the day, and provide a focus for thunderstorms with a moist air mass in place. ...MS/AL/GA... Showers and scattered thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing near and north of the cold front Thursday morning, which will extend from southern LA across MS and into northern AL. Ahead of the front, models indicate only modest low-level lapse rates developing during the day. However, SBCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg may develop due to 60s F dewpoints. Despite the lack of heating, the slow-moving nature of the cold front may allow for clusters of storms to gain some cold pool potential. Large-scale ascent associated with the right entrance region of the upper jet will further aid storm coverage. In terms of severe potential, low-level wind fields appear marginal for much downward momentum transfer with 850 mb speeds of 20-30 kt. The lack of appreciable instability will also limit downdraft potential. Low-level SRH will be maximized ahead of a weak low and near a warm front over northern AL and GA, but with only a weak surface trough and veered 850 mb winds. As such, will maintain less than 5% severe probabilities. ..Jewell.. 02/10/2021
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