SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CST Wed Feb 10 2021

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

No changes from the previous outlook thinking.

..Jewell.. 02/10/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Wed Feb 10 2021/

...Discussion...
The large arctic cyclone over central Canada will continue evolving
over the Prairie Provinces today, with broad/fast/weakly cyclonic
flow extending southward into the central U.S.

Farther south and east, more zonal westerly flow is progged. 
Meanwhile, a trough in the southern stream is progged to move across
the Four Corners states and adjacent Baja/northern Mexico through
the period.

At the surface, a weak west-to-east baroclinic zone -- currently
extending across northern Florida and the Gulf Coast region -- will
drift slowly northward, eventually/gradually merging with the arctic
front lingering from the Appalachians southwestward across the lower
Mississippi Valley to coastal Texas.

A broad zone of convection -- including occasional/embedded
thunderstorms -- will extend from Texas into the Southeast.  Most of
the convection will be elevated atop a stable boundary layer north
of the northward-drifting marine front over the Southeast, and north
of the main arctic front over Texas.  A few weak/near surface-based
storms will be possible nearer the Gulf Coast, but modest CAPE/shear
suggests storms will remain disorganized.

Later in the period, an increase in elevated storms may occur over
portions of Texas -- from the Del Rio area southward along the Rio
Grande Valley, and eastward across central Texas.  While steeper
lapse rates aloft could support a few stronger elevated updrafts,
and associated risk for hail that could locally approach severe
levels, risk appears too low/isolated to warrant introduction of
MRGL risk/5% hail probability.

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