SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Wed Feb 10 2021 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. No changes from the previous outlook thinking. ..Jewell.. 02/10/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Wed Feb 10 2021/ ...Discussion... The large arctic cyclone over central Canada will continue evolving over the Prairie Provinces today, with broad/fast/weakly cyclonic flow extending southward into the central U.S. Farther south and east, more zonal westerly flow is progged. Meanwhile, a trough in the southern stream is progged to move across the Four Corners states and adjacent Baja/northern Mexico through the period. At the surface, a weak west-to-east baroclinic zone -- currently extending across northern Florida and the Gulf Coast region -- will drift slowly northward, eventually/gradually merging with the arctic front lingering from the Appalachians southwestward across the lower Mississippi Valley to coastal Texas. A broad zone of convection -- including occasional/embedded thunderstorms -- will extend from Texas into the Southeast. Most of the convection will be elevated atop a stable boundary layer north of the northward-drifting marine front over the Southeast, and north of the main arctic front over Texas. A few weak/near surface-based storms will be possible nearer the Gulf Coast, but modest CAPE/shear suggests storms will remain disorganized. Later in the period, an increase in elevated storms may occur over portions of Texas -- from the Del Rio area southward along the Rio Grande Valley, and eastward across central Texas. While steeper lapse rates aloft could support a few stronger elevated updrafts, and associated risk for hail that could locally approach severe levels, risk appears too low/isolated to warrant introduction of MRGL risk/5% hail probability.
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