Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 AM CST Wed Feb 10 2021

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An arctic airmass will envelop much of the CONUS through at least
Day 6/Mon. A series of upper troughs will allow reinforcing shots of
cold air to spread southeast across the Plains and Midwest. While a
cold and dry airmass will settle across the Southeast U.S.,
southwesterly deep-layer flow will prevail, maintaining weak warm
advection across the region with a surface boundary extending across
the northern Gulf of Mexico and northern FL for much of the period.
This will allow for periods of showers and thunderstorms across
parts of the Southeast, but severe potential appears low. 

The exception may be around Day 6/Mon or Day 7/Tue when a shortwave
trough is forecast by some guidance to develop eastward across
northern/central Mexico and into the Gulf, before lifting northeast
toward the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. If this occurs,
surface cyclogenesis across the lower MS/TN Valley vicinity could
result in a favorable warm sector overlapping with strong shear and
upper forcing across parts of the Southeast ahead of another strong
cold front. Medium-range guidance currently differs in timing and
intensity of these features, resulting in low predictability, but
severe probabilities could be needed in future outlooks if
confidence in this scenario increases.

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