SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Wed Feb 10 2021 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Weak thunderstorm activity may continue to develop across parts of the Ark-la-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid South tonight, and perhaps across parts of central Texas and the Texas Rio Grande Valley vicinity. ...01Z Outlook Update... Convection capable of producing lightning has been increasing in an arcing band across parts of northeastern Texas through northern Louisiana and central Mississippi. This appears aided by weak destabilization along the northern periphery of the richer low-level moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico, and is mostly occurring to the north of the leading edge of the sharp southward advancing surface cold front. Guidance suggests that thunderstorm development will persist, and perhaps continue to increase this evening while spreading northward and northeastward across parts of the Ark-La-Tex and Mid South. Eventually, it appears that activity may become focused near the stalled/quasi-stationary leading edge of the deeper cold surface-based air (roughly delineated by the sharper baroclinic zone around 850 mb). Additional elevated thunderstorm development appears possible overnight, southwestward along the frontal zone across central Texas into the Rio Grande Valley, and across the higher terrain of Mexico, to the south, into the lower Rio Grande Valley. However, due to model spread, timing of this activity is a bit uncertain, and may mostly occur after 12Z Thursday morning. ..Kerr.. 02/11/2021
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