SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 PM CST Wed Feb 10 2021

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Weak thunderstorm activity may continue to develop across parts of
the Ark-la-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid South
tonight, and perhaps across parts of central Texas and the Texas Rio
Grande Valley vicinity.

...01Z Outlook Update...
Convection capable of producing lightning has been increasing in an
arcing band across parts of northeastern Texas through northern
Louisiana and central Mississippi.  This appears aided by weak
destabilization along the northern periphery of the richer low-level
moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico, and is mostly occurring to
the north of the leading edge of the sharp southward advancing
surface cold front.  

Guidance suggests that thunderstorm development will persist, and
perhaps continue to increase this evening while spreading northward
and northeastward across parts of the Ark-La-Tex and Mid South. 
Eventually, it appears that activity may become focused near the
stalled/quasi-stationary leading edge of the deeper cold
surface-based air (roughly delineated by the sharper baroclinic zone
around 850 mb).

Additional elevated thunderstorm development appears possible
overnight, southwestward along the frontal zone across central Texas
into the Rio Grande Valley, and across the higher terrain of Mexico,
to the south, into the lower Rio Grande Valley.  However, due to
model spread, timing of this activity is a bit uncertain, and may
mostly occur after 12Z Thursday morning.

..Kerr.. 02/11/2021

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