SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday.


The arctic intrusion across much of the CONUS will persist on
Saturday. An upper shortwave trough over the southern
Rockies/northern Mexico will pivot eastward toward east TX and the
western Gulf. This will maintain a warm advection regime over parts
of the Southeast. At the surface, a wavy front will extend from/near
the Carolinas coast westward to the GA/AL/FL border, then southwest
across the northwestern Gulf Saturday morning. Stronger surface
cyclogenesis is forecast to occur offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast
Saturday evening, and the front will sag south/southeast to far
southeast GA/northern FL by Sunday morning. 

Surface heating across FL, where dewpoints in the 60s F will be in
place, will result in weak destabilization amid modest shear and
steepening low level lapse rates. This could result in a couple of
stronger storms across parts of the northern/central FL Peninsula
during the afternoon and evening. However, overall severe potential
is expected to be limited by poor midlevel lapse rates and weak
low-level winds.

..Leitman.. 02/11/2021

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