SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The arctic intrusion across much of the CONUS will persist on Saturday. An upper shortwave trough over the southern Rockies/northern Mexico will pivot eastward toward east TX and the western Gulf. This will maintain a warm advection regime over parts of the Southeast. At the surface, a wavy front will extend from/near the Carolinas coast westward to the GA/AL/FL border, then southwest across the northwestern Gulf Saturday morning. Stronger surface cyclogenesis is forecast to occur offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday evening, and the front will sag south/southeast to far southeast GA/northern FL by Sunday morning. Surface heating across FL, where dewpoints in the 60s F will be in place, will result in weak destabilization amid modest shear and steepening low level lapse rates. This could result in a couple of stronger storms across parts of the northern/central FL Peninsula during the afternoon and evening. However, overall severe potential is expected to be limited by poor midlevel lapse rates and weak low-level winds. ..Leitman.. 02/11/2021
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