SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday.

...Synopsis...

The arctic intrusion across much of the CONUS will persist on
Saturday. An upper shortwave trough over the southern
Rockies/northern Mexico will pivot eastward toward east TX and the
western Gulf. This will maintain a warm advection regime over parts
of the Southeast. At the surface, a wavy front will extend from/near
the Carolinas coast westward to the GA/AL/FL border, then southwest
across the northwestern Gulf Saturday morning. Stronger surface
cyclogenesis is forecast to occur offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast
Saturday evening, and the front will sag south/southeast to far
southeast GA/northern FL by Sunday morning. 

Surface heating across FL, where dewpoints in the 60s F will be in
place, will result in weak destabilization amid modest shear and
steepening low level lapse rates. This could result in a couple of
stronger storms across parts of the northern/central FL Peninsula
during the afternoon and evening. However, overall severe potential
is expected to be limited by poor midlevel lapse rates and weak
low-level winds.

..Leitman.. 02/11/2021

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