Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential will remain low during the Day 4-8 period due to a persistent arctic airmass over much of the CONUS. The exception will be over FL into parts of southern GA and perhaps the eastern Carolinas around Day 5/Monday and Day 6/Tuesday. Medium-range guidance will bring an intense upper trough eastward from the southern Plains/northern Mexico early Monday to the Mid-Atlantic/ Northeast vicinity by early Day 7/Wednesday. As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis is forecast to strengthen and track over the central Gulf coast vicinity to the Mid-Atlantic around Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Strengthening shear will overspread the region as Gulf moisture surges northward ahead of the surface low and attendant cold front. This could result in increasing severe potential across parts of the Southeast Monday and Tuesday. At this time, guidance varies in the timing and latitude of these features. As a result, predictability of severe potential is low, though probabilities may be needed in future outlooks.
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