Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential will remain low during the Day 4-8 period due to a
persistent arctic airmass over much of the CONUS. The exception will
be over FL into parts of southern GA and perhaps the eastern
Carolinas around Day 5/Monday and Day 6/Tuesday. Medium-range
guidance will bring an intense upper trough eastward from the
southern Plains/northern Mexico early Monday to the Mid-Atlantic/
Northeast vicinity by early Day 7/Wednesday. As this occurs, surface
cyclogenesis is forecast to strengthen and track over the central
Gulf coast vicinity to the Mid-Atlantic around Monday afternoon
through Tuesday. Strengthening shear will overspread the region as
Gulf moisture surges northward ahead of the surface low and
attendant cold front. This could result in increasing severe
potential across parts of the Southeast Monday and Tuesday. At this
time, guidance varies in the timing and latitude of these features.
As a result, predictability of severe potential is low, though
probabilities may be needed in future outlooks.

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