SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0702 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity remains possible tonight
across parts of the Gulf and south Atlantic Coast states.

...01Z Outlook Update...
A gradual suppression of broad mid-level subtropical ridging is
underway across the Gulf Coast states into the Southeast, in
response to the progression of several short wave perturbations
around its northwestern and northern periphery.  Veering of
mid-level flow and lower/mid-tropospheric drying in the wake of
these features have resulted in elevated weak thunderstorm activity
(across parts of southern Texas through the north central Gulf coast
vicinity) becoming increasingly focused in closer proximity to the
surface frontal zone.

The shallow leading edge of the Arctic air is now offshore, across
the northwestern and  north central Gulf of Mexico, into parts of
southeastern Alabama, with cold air damming also underway to the lee
of the southern Appalachians.  At least some further southward
advancement is expected overnight.

Otherwise, some weak thunderstorms have also developed well south of
the front, across the interior central Florida Peninsula, where
modest daytime boundary-layer destabilization occurred.  Forcing for
ascent associated with a weak mid/upper perturbation may be
contributing to this activity, and it appears that this could
persist another couple of hours, before diminishing or spreading
east-northeastward offshore.

..Kerr.. 02/12/2021

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