SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across parts of north/central Florida. Occasional damaging wind gusts should be the main threat, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. ...Florida... Broadly cyclonic flow will remain over much of the CONUS on Saturday, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs progressing eastward through the period. Convective potential will largely be relegated to parts of the Southeast, where sufficient moisture should exist to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms. At the surface, a front will likely be located over the FL Panhandle and southern GA Saturday morning. This front should move little through the day as a weak surface low develops northeastward from the northern Gulf of Mexico to the western Atlantic. The potential for surface-based storms will largely remain confined to parts of FL along/south of the front. Although large-scale forcing appears rather nebulous across the Southeast, southwesterly mid-level winds are forecast to gradually increase through Saturday evening in the vicinity of the surface front as multiple vorticity maxima aloft move northeastward. The surface boundary will likely focus convective development, with storm coverage potentially increasing by Saturday afternoon/evening as a south-southwesterly low-level jet modestly strengthens. Deep-layer shear of 35-45 kt will support storm organization. However, poor mid-level lapse rates and only modest boundary-layer heating will likely temper instability, even as rich low-level moisture gradually advects northward across the FL Peninsula. Still, MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg appears probable by peak afternoon heating across parts of north/central FL. Some storms may be capable of producing occasional damaging wind gusts if they can organize into small line segments. 0-1 km SRH around 100 m2/s2 in the vicinity of the surface front may also support some low-level rotation and perhaps a brief tornado with any storm that can remain at least semi-discrete. Regardless, the marginal thermodynamic environment should keep the overall severe threat fairly isolated. ..Gleason.. 02/12/2021
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