SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across
parts of north/central Florida. Occasional damaging wind gusts
should be the main threat, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

...Florida...
Broadly cyclonic flow will remain over much of the CONUS on
Saturday, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs progressing
eastward through the period. Convective potential will largely be
relegated to parts of the Southeast, where sufficient moisture
should exist to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms. At the
surface, a front will likely be located over the FL Panhandle and
southern GA Saturday morning. This front should move little through
the day as a weak surface low develops northeastward from the
northern Gulf of Mexico to the western Atlantic. The potential for
surface-based storms will largely remain confined to parts of FL
along/south of the front.

Although large-scale forcing appears rather nebulous across the
Southeast, southwesterly mid-level winds are forecast to gradually
increase through Saturday evening in the vicinity of the surface
front as multiple vorticity maxima aloft move northeastward. The
surface boundary will likely focus convective development, with
storm coverage potentially increasing by Saturday afternoon/evening
as a south-southwesterly low-level jet modestly strengthens.
Deep-layer shear of 35-45 kt will support storm organization.
However, poor mid-level lapse rates and only modest boundary-layer
heating will likely temper instability, even as rich low-level
moisture gradually advects northward across the FL Peninsula. Still,
MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg appears probable by peak afternoon
heating across parts of north/central FL. Some storms may be capable
of producing occasional damaging wind gusts if they can organize
into small line segments. 0-1 km SRH around 100 m2/s2 in the
vicinity of the surface front may also support some low-level
rotation and perhaps a brief tornado with any storm that can remain
at least semi-discrete. Regardless, the marginal thermodynamic
environment should keep the overall severe threat fairly isolated.

..Gleason.. 02/12/2021

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