SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Sunday across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Florida... Large-scale upper troughing will dominate the CONUS on Sunday. A low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within southwesterly mid-level flow should advance northeastward over the Gulf Coast states through the period. At the surface, a front near southern GA and north FL is forecast to move little through the day. Substantial low-level moisture is expected to remain confined along/south of this front on Sunday. The glancing influence of large-scale ascent associated with the low-amplitude shortwave trough may encourage convective development by Sunday afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula. Forecast soundings across this region suggest deep-layer shear will remain strong enough to support organized updrafts. Diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass present along/south of the surface boundary should foster weak to locally moderate instability by late afternoon. The forecast combination of instability and shear appears sufficient for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, with strong/gusty winds likely the main threat. This marginal severe risk should diminish Sunday evening, as instability gradually weakens with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason.. 02/12/2021
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