SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Sunday
across parts of the Florida Peninsula.

...Florida...
Large-scale upper troughing will dominate the CONUS on Sunday. A
low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within southwesterly
mid-level flow should advance northeastward over the Gulf Coast
states through the period. At the surface, a front near southern GA
and north FL is forecast to move little through the day. Substantial
low-level moisture is expected to remain confined along/south of
this front on Sunday.

The glancing influence of large-scale ascent associated with the
low-amplitude shortwave trough may encourage convective development
by Sunday afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula. Forecast
soundings across this region suggest deep-layer shear will remain
strong enough to support organized updrafts. Diurnal heating of the
moist low-level airmass present along/south of the surface boundary
should foster weak to locally moderate instability by late
afternoon. The forecast combination of instability and shear appears
sufficient for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, with
strong/gusty winds likely the main threat. This marginal severe risk
should diminish Sunday evening, as instability gradually weakens
with the loss of daytime heating.

..Gleason.. 02/12/2021

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