SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging gusts and a brief tornado are possible Saturday across northern and central Florida. ...Northern through central Florida... Within a broad, cyclonic upper-flow regime over the eastern U.S., a series of vorticity maxima will move from the northern Gulf through a portion of the southeast states including north FL. A stationary front will persist from the northern Gulf, northeastward to along the GA/FL border. Most high-res guidance indicate a rain-cooled boundary will develop across northern FL Saturday morning due to ongoing areas of showers and thunderstorms. There is uncertainty regarding the placement of this feature with the HRRR suggesting most of northern FL may not recover during the day. The warm sector south of the boundary is expected to become moderately unstable with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints supporting 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, but with weak mid-level lapse rates. Deeper forcing associated with the northeast-migrating maxima will likely remain in cool sector. However, a few storms are expected to develop along the rain-cooled boundary across north or central FL during the afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes. While the stronger winds aloft and vertical shear will reside in the cool sector, at least 30-40 kt effective bulk shear will support the potential for some storm organization with locally strong wind gusts the main threat. Additional strong storms may develop farther south along the sea breeze. ..Dial.. 02/12/2021
There’s more click here.