SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Only minor adjustments have been made to previous forecast. ..Dial.. 02/12/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021/ ...Northern FL/southern GA... A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon focused along the east coast sea breeze in northeast FL and a slowly southward shifting cold front across southern GA. Modest mid-level lapse rates yielding a relatively thin buoyancy profile along with weak 0-3 km shear should mitigate potential for severe, although small hail and a locally strong gust or two is possible. Otherwise, the northern periphery of widespread thunderstorms over the Gulf may brush portions of the eastern FL Panhandle and Big Bend region tonight amid limited buoyancy and poor lapse rates. ...Far southeast CA to AZ... A compact shortwave trough sliding southeast from southern CA to Sonora may aid in sporadic lightning flashes occurring this afternoon initially centered on the Lower CO Valley. While buoyancy will be scant, approach of the mid-level cold pocket will steepen lapse rates and in conjunction with the DCVA should support a risk for isolated thunderstorms spreading east through about dusk. ...Deep South TX... A convective cluster over Tamaulipas might brush a portion of Deep South TX as it spreads into the northwest Gulf. 12Z Brownsville sounding sampled scant elevated buoyancy but relatively warm 500-300 mb temperatures should limit the northern extent of the thunder threat through this afternoon. ...Coastal CA/OR border... The next in a series of shortwave troughs will impinge on the coastal CA/OR border area overnight. While much of the convection will remain as low-topped showers, it is plausible that a brief thunderstorm or two might develop towards 12Z as mid-level lapse rates steepen given the strong forcing for ascent. However, buoyancy may be too flimsy to support charge separation.
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