SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.


Only minor adjustments have been made to previous forecast.

..Dial.. 02/12/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021/

...Northern FL/southern GA...
A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon focused along the
east coast sea breeze in northeast FL and a slowly southward
shifting cold front across southern GA. Modest mid-level lapse rates
yielding a relatively thin buoyancy profile along with weak 0-3 km
shear should mitigate potential for severe, although small hail and
a locally strong gust or two is possible. Otherwise, the northern
periphery of widespread thunderstorms over the Gulf may brush
portions of the eastern FL Panhandle and Big Bend region tonight
amid limited buoyancy and poor lapse rates. 

...Far southeast CA to AZ...
A compact shortwave trough sliding southeast from southern CA to
Sonora may aid in sporadic lightning flashes occurring this
afternoon initially centered on the Lower CO Valley. While buoyancy
will be scant, approach of the mid-level cold pocket will steepen
lapse rates and in conjunction with the DCVA should support a risk
for isolated thunderstorms spreading east through about dusk.

...Deep South TX...
A convective cluster over Tamaulipas might brush a portion of Deep
South TX as it spreads into the northwest Gulf. 12Z Brownsville
sounding sampled scant elevated buoyancy but relatively warm 500-300
mb temperatures should limit the northern extent of the thunder
threat through this afternoon.

...Coastal CA/OR border...
The next in a series of shortwave troughs will impinge on the
coastal CA/OR border area overnight. While much of the convection
will remain as low-topped showers, it is plausible that a brief
thunderstorm or two might develop towards 12Z as mid-level lapse
rates steepen given the strong forcing for ascent. However, buoyancy
may be too flimsy to support charge separation.

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